Just three weeks until selection Sunday as [music] March is just around the corner. And you know what? There’s a new one seed in town. Duke has ascended to the top spot after a Saturday [music] win over previous one seed Michigan. As the brackettology comes into focus though, who will impress the selection committee next month and earn a one seed in the tournament?
For more, I’m joined now by CBS Sports director of scouting Adam Finkelestein and CBS Sports College basketball writer David Cobb. Guys, you know, entering Sunday, Duke, Michigan, Yukon, and Arizona are the one seeds per CBS Sports Brackettology. Adam, do you agree here? Who are your current one seeds? >> I think there are three definitive ones.
I think it’s hard to argue with with Duke, Michigan, and Arizona. The fourth one is is debatable and and candidly I think we’re going to know more in the next 72 hours. Yukon has got a a matchup with St. John’s on Wednesday and of course Houston. Uh they’re going to visit Kansas just tomorrow night.
So those are two big matchups that I think could really dictate at least who has the favorite for that that fourth number one seed. Now I tend to think Houston is playing a little bit better right at the moment. I know they’ve lost a couple games recently, but I will admit like I watched that game that they lost [music] at Iowa State and I came away thinking if these two teams play on a neutral floor, I’d take Houston. So, I’m sure uh David’s going to have some more perspective from the analytics, but just in the eye test, I tend to go Houston right now, but as I said, I reserve the right to change my mind here in about 72 hours. >> Yeah, Adam.
Uh, my problem with Houston right now is they’re not being as disruptive defensively as maybe we’re accustomed to seeing from a Kelvin Samson team. So, I’ve actually got Yukon as the fourth number one seed, but that spot continues to be a revolving door right now. We saw the bracket preview on Saturday initially list Iowa State there, but then we saw Iowa State and Houston both take losses. Meanwhile, Yukon added another quad one win. One of very few opportunities [music] in quad one they’ve had in Big East play on the road at Villanova.
So, I’m actually in in lockstep agreement with the CBS Sports Brackettology here uh with obviously Duke after the head-to-head win over Michigan and then you got Michigan still there at number two followed by Arizona and Yukon. >> All right. Well, that’s an impressive list right there. We’ll see how it shakes out. But things have been changing lately, guys.
The top two teams fell on Saturday as Michigan and Houston both lost. But one of the teams that won, David, is one of your biggest risers from this week. You’re going to Arizona. Tell us why. >> So Arizona is still the number three overall seed.
So I in technicality, they did not rise over the weekend, but I do think they rose in terms of their long-term staying power on the number one seed line. Uh, this is a team that just went in in one at Houston while playing short-handed without [music] KA Pete, without Dwayne Aristo, a very short six-man rotation in the second half of that game. And now they’re sitting there right on the heels really of Michigan and Duke. All three of those teams 25-2. Uh, and Arizona just keeps chugging along.
It looked like a week or so ago as if they might be fading and the injuries might be starting to catch up with them, but then they add two victories over projected NCAA tournament teams again, including that very impressive uh road win over Houston. So, even though they’re still technically just the number three overall seed, I like where they’re headed. And if it ever got to a situation where they were compared head-to-head with Yukon by the committee, we think this committee values head-to-head. And Arizona does have uh the head-to-head win over Yukon from earlier in the season. I tell you what, I think the team that helped themselves the most this weekend, and I’m admittedly focused more on the potential bubble right now was UCLA and that win against Illinois on their own floor.
Donovan Dent doing his best Tus Edney impersonation going coast to coast for that game-winning layup. And now UCLA has a pair of wins over teams that the NCA said were in their top eight earlier this week. They beat Purdue earlier in the season. Now they have this win over Illinois. So they’re 18-9 overall.
You see the net ranking is is 41. They’re 42 in Ken Palm. So th those numbers are very closely aligned. And when you look at the rest of their schedule, they’ve got a home and home with USC. They’re at Minnesota and they’re going to play Nebraska.
So that is a favorable schedule to me. You’re talking about a team that could go into the conference tournament with 20, 21, maybe even 22 wins. And let’s face it, an NCA tournament without a Mick Cronin press conference, that’s just not an NCA tournament that I’m nearly as interested in watching. So, we got to get Mick in the uh the quote machine in that tournament. And I think we went a long way after that buzzer beater over Illinois.
>> Absolutely. And hey, UCLA was one of the teams that knocked off a top 10 opponent on Saturday. We saw the top two teams in the country both knocked off in Michigan and Houston losing. Iowa State, Illinois, Kansas also lost. We had five of the top 10 teams going down on Saturday.
But Adam, when you consider that, who is your biggest faller after this week’s action? >> I I’m staying in LA. I think USC really hurt themselves. They’ve now lost three in a row. And when you look at those games, they were hoping to win two of them and expecting to win at least one.
They lost on the road at Ohio State in a bubble versus bubble type game. They got absolutely drilled by Illinois and then they lost a one-point game or versus Oregon and that was just a crusher. This is a team that is now listed as the first four out. When you look at the rest of their regular season schedule, they’re actually forecasted to lose all four games remaining on that schedule. I mentioned the home and home against UCLA.
They’re also on the road against Washington and then they have Nebraska. Now, let me be clear, all of those games are winnable, but right now the analytics say they are the underdog in all four. again coming off that three-game losing streak. I think Andy Enfield’s club, although they have admirably fought off injuries throughout the course of the year and gotten through some adversity. Right now, it’s just starting to get the best of them.
>> Yeah, Adam, they got Chad Baker Mazzora back and still lost at home to Oregon, which is highly, highly concerning. Uh my biggest follower, I considered going Clemson here. Clemson would certainly fit the bill. They are sliding rapidly towards the bubble, but I stayed at the top of the bracket and went with Houston for this reason. Certainly there there’s nothing uh overly problematic about losing a couple of games against high-end Big 12 opposition, but what concerns me about Houston is the opportunity cost.
They have the the uh potential path here to play in the in the South region, which would mean playing in your home city during the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, but to get there, to get to a point where they’re in that South region, they’re probably going to need to be either the number four overall seed or the number five overall seed. Well, if they keep losing games, it’s going to be hard to get there. Monday night, they go to Fog Allen to play at Kansas. You can’t afford a three-game losing streak this time of year, even against great opposition, if you’re trying to be one of the top five seeds in the NCAA tournament. And given uh what playing in Houston in that South region, could mean for Houston, uh I’m a little concerned to see them uh sliding and losing a couple of games here.
>> Yeah. Now, as as much as at this time of year, we’ve got our eyes on the the shaking up at the top, let’s take a look at the bottom and the bubble, right? the bubble teams. According to CBS Sports Brackettologology, here’s the last four in and first four out. Ohio State lost to Michigan State on Sunday on CBS.
The Buckeyes move from [music] 11 seed to the next four out, which was a big drop. So, [music] uh, when you look at this, David, I’ll start with you. Which is your bubble team to watch in the next four weeks? >> Yeah, so Indiana just off that graphic today. We had them as the fifth team out in CBS Sports Brackettologology, which I thought was a little harsh, but the rationale for that within the model is this.
There are no other teams in the top 50 of the net outside of Miami of Ohio that have fewer quad one and quad 2 wins. I mean, Indiana has a total of four quad one and quad 2 wins right now. That is a very, very low tally at this point in the year. And the problem is there’s not a whole lot of meat left on the schedule. Up next, you’re you’re at home versestern, which is on that fringe of quad two and quad three.
You’ve got Michigan State at home a week from today. That is a massive game. Could be a sort of must-win sort of situation there for Darien Dere and the Hooers cuz uh look, a couple of their losses as of late have been against really high quality Big 10 opposition. And that’s not going to kill you, but they need to start adding some fortification to their resume in that quad 2 range. but because of the way their schedule’s shaped up and because of what they’ve got left, they just don’t have a ton of those opportunities.
So, uh, Indiana is sort of right there teetering on the brink. You could interpret their resume in a variety of different ways. Uh, but they’re down about 10 spots at Ken Palm over the last three weeks. And that to me suggests they are trending in the wrong direction. >> You know who does have meat on the bone in terms of their remaining schedule?
That’s Cincinnati. And I know they weren’t on the graphic. I don’t even think they’re on the bubble yet, but I think they could be on the bubble. They’ve won four in a row and obviously the game at Fog Allen this weekend, that’s the one everybody’s talking about that you see it. They’re out right now.
But the Nets 51, strength of schedule’s 41, [music] Ken Palm is 46. It’s the record versus quad one that’s really problematic. But when you look at it, the other thing that’s really problematic is a bad loss to Eastern Michigan and to a lesser extent Xavier. Those were both earlier in the seasons. Now, what’s still coming up on the road at Texas Tech without JT Toppen, at home against Oklahoma State, at home against BYU, and on the road against TCU.
All of those games are tough ones, but they all pose an opportunity if somehow Cincinnati that’s won four in a row can win three of those, maybe four of those. And you look at some of the teams that we have on the first four out VCU, I don’t think the A10’s a multi- bid league this year. If they get in, I think St. Louis will not get in because whoever wins that tournament is getting in. I think Cincinnati could be a team that puts themselves in position to be in position in a week or two.
And I am fascinated to see if Wes Miller can continue to build momentum after what was arguably the biggest win of his career so far as the Bearcats head coach. >> Interesting. A lot of storylines to follow down the stretch of this season. David Cob Cobb, Adam Finkelestein, thanks so much for the insight. >> Thanks.
Lots of basketball to be played because [music] of course we sleep in May as CBS Sports John Rothstein would say. Let’s take a look at the shortest odds to win the national title this [music] year. Michigan coming in at plus 370. Duke the current one seed at plus 450. Purdue on the board at plus 2500.
We’ll see how it all shakes out.